Researchers predict coronavirus deaths in the US could double by April, even as vaccines could save close to 9,000 lives

• A report from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington expects the cumulative COVID-19 death toll will reach 539,000 by April 1.
• About 282,000 Americans have died due to the virus as of December 7.
• The report predicts vaccines will prevent 9,000 deaths before April 1, and “speed the transition back to normal” later in the year.
• An US Food and Drug Administration advisor said high-risk Americans could get access to the Pfizer vaccine by this week.
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A new report predicts the US COVID-19 death toll will double by April 1. 

By April 1, the cumulative COVID-19 death toll will reach 539,000 and daily deaths will peak at 3,000 per day in mid-January, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. IHME is primarily funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The report predicts vaccines will prevent 9,000 deaths before April 1, and “speed the transition back to normal” later in the year.

Two vaccines developed by Pfizer and Moderna currently await a green light for emergency authorized use by the US Food and Drug Administration. An FDA advisor said high-risk Americans could get access to the Pfizer vaccine by this week.

Read more: Moderna’s ambitions of pumping out up to 1 billion doses of a coronavirus vaccine rest on a former Polaroid factory that’s never produced an approved drug

In the week ending on December 4, daily reported deaths increased by 190 per day compared with the week prior. Daily reported cases increased by 19,300 per day in the last two weeks.

The US added over 1 million COVID-19 cases in the first five days of December. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended Americans not travel or gather with family indoors on Thanksgiving to limit the disease's spread, but millions still passed through US airport checkpoints during the holiday weekend.

The increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations risk overwhelming hospitals. California has already imposed a stay-at-home order due to decreasing hospital bed availability.

IHME estimates 15% of the US population had been infected by COVID-19 as of November 30.

If at least 95% of the US implements universal mask mandates, the IHME model predicts 66,000 fewer cumulative deaths. A CDC report found Kansas counties that adopted a mask mandate saw COVID-19 incidence decrease by 6%, while counties without such mandate saw cases increase by 100%.

President-elect Joe Biden has asked Americans to wear a mask during the first 100 days of his presidency, beginning on January 20.